I know a bit about computers, particularly how technology nearly doubles every 13ish months. My question is why is it that 13 months, and why/what is it that is making it so it doesn't just double all the time right now? What is the bottleneck for technology?What is keeping computer technology from taking off uncontrollably?
The primary bottleneck is the difficulty in finding new processes to reliably create CPUs and other microchips with more and more transistors packed onto them in a way that will allow them to function.
Physics imposes limitations on the minimum size of the traces that can be etched onto a layer of a silicon chip using existing processes, and on how close together the traces can be without allowing electrons to interact with those following neighboring traces in ways that would cause the chip not to function correctly. Also, there is always some electrical resistance, which generates heat, and chips have to be designed in such a way that the internally generated heat can be dispersed quickly enough to avoid any danger of melting the chip.What is keeping computer technology from taking off uncontrollably?
That 13 months can vary considerable, anywhere from 9 months to 3 years, depending on which industry, sector, or even decade you are talking about. Moore's Law initially started with a 2 year doubling of transistors in a given chip area. That was later revised to 18 months. As someone alluded to in an earlier answer, we are approaching the size of the atom for circuit pathways which is a limiting factor. Maybe another 10-20 years?
Other limiting factors are manufacturing costs, which have been rising in the area of computer chips.
Many other sectors experience similar doublings of their technology, such as solar power, so that may represent a learning curve for humanity in general.
Eventually, any exponential growth will either level off, or be stopped by something catastrophic. Hopefully, to be replaced by something new and better.What is keeping computer technology from taking off uncontrollably?
I don't know about that technology doubling thing.
,but the bottleneck is that the industry is run by nerds.
If the industry was run by cool people who wanted to satisfy their customers.........
By now you would be using a computer that you wrote on the glass in stead of having to type, and it would not be malfunctioning hundreds of times a week and blaming you for making an error.
On the other hand, you can use your computer to get free samples of every type of porn, including torture porn and water sports. You can thank the nerds for that.
In a laboratory setup your hypothesis might hold water, but IT is a science that is wedded to infrastructure. Just because IBM can push atoms around to spell IBM under an electron microscope, the math professor and the hardware manufacturer would have to follow along in the same scope, also have to consult with the advertisers on how to market the wonder of it all.
We have exceeded the limits of our current computer. We will have to wait for the next big thing, and, it won't come from our current industrial-military complex.
And, it will come. Recent good news was a digital camera that collects 100% of the light rays available to a photo.
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